In recent months, Africa has witnessed a surge in anti-government protests, sparked by mounting frustrations over corruption, economic mismanagement, and high living costs.
The World Bank’s October 2024 Africa’s Pulse report warns that these protests could spread further across the continent, driven by systemic socio-economic issues affecting Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report underscores the challenges in countries where rising costs, corruption, and governance shortfalls have created a volatile social climate.
The report notes that youth disillusionment, fuelled by limited economic opportunities and widening inequality, has led to public demonstrations in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda. In Kenya, public outrage over proposed tax hikes recently forced the government to respond by replacing almost the entire cabinet.
Similarly, in Uganda, protests against alleged corruption among senior officials, including parliamentary speaker Anita Among, have highlighted the growing frustration with entrenched power structures resistant to accountability.
“The high cost of living, corruption, and weak governance have fuelled protests and palpable anger among the youth in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda—unrest that could spread throughout the region,” the World Bank report warns.
This unrest, the report argues, reflects a deeper frustration with ineffective public systems and economic stagnation. Many citizens perceive government institutions as unwilling or unable to foster sustained growth and reduce long-standing inequalities.
The World Bank warns that without meaningful reform, particularly targeting economic inclusion and inequality, social discontent may escalate further, posing risks to regional stability and growth.
Drivers of Social Unrest: Corruption, High Costs, and Weak Governance
Recent protests in Kenya, Nigeria, and Uganda reflect growing public frustration over escalating living costs, corruption, and governance issues. Corruption, which has eroded trust in public institutions, is a major contributor to these tensions. The World Bank warns that, as the cost of basic goods rises, many citizens in Sub-Saharan Africa struggle to meet daily expenses, making social inequality more visible and amplifying discontent, particularly among the young and unemployed.
In Uganda, protests erupted in July 2024 after security forces arrested demonstrators seeking to march to Parliament in Kampala to protest against alleged corruption at high levels. Inspired by recent events in Kenya, where public pressure and mass demonstrations led to the dismissal of nearly the entire cabinet, Ugandan demonstrators sought to bring attention to corruption, particularly involving Speaker Among.
Despite allegations of irregular spending by her office, Among has denied the accusations and resisted calls to step down.
The World Bank report highlights that a combination of high youth unemployment and limited economic opportunity creates fertile ground for further unrest. Uganda, where over 75% of the population is under 30, is especially vulnerable to economic exclusion, which could lead to prolonged instability without government-led reform.
Call for Fiscal Reforms to Address Inequality
In response to these challenges, the World Bank advocates comprehensive fiscal policy reforms that focus on efficiency and equity. Current fiscal policies in many African nations are viewed as favouring the elite, leading to a sense of economic marginalisation among lower-income populations. The report calls for a “fiscal compact” prioritising equitable public spending to ensure essential services like education, healthcare, and infrastructure reach more citizens.
“Fiscal policies that tackle inequality are critical, particularly in defining a fiscal compact that emphasises both spending efficiency and equity,” the report says. The World Bank also stresses the need to create an environment conducive to the growth of small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) within the formal employment sector. Empowering disadvantaged communities economically would not only stimulate growth but also help address the widespread inequality fuelling unrest.
Regional Conflicts and Economic Stability
Ongoing regional conflicts, such as the war in Sudan, have intensified existing challenges, particularly in food security and healthcare. The United Nations estimates that around 8.5 million people in Sudan are facing severe malnutrition, with approximately 755,000 on the brink of famine. Conflict-driven disruptions limiting access to essential goods and services in Sudan highlight how regional instability can destabilise Sub-Saharan Africa’s broader economy.
The World Bank report also notes that rising violence and continued repression of social and political dissent deter investment. Business uncertainty around contracts and long-term hiring commitments has weakened private sector confidence across the region, further stifling growth in already fragile economies.
Economic Growth, Inflation, and Debt Challenges
The World Bank’s projections suggest a fragile recovery in Sub-Saharan Africa, with growth expected to reach 3% in 2024, up from 2.4% in 2023. This recovery is largely driven by private consumption and investment, alongside tighter fiscal and monetary policies designed to curb inflation. Inflation rates are forecast to fall from 7.1% in 2023 to 4.9% in 2024 and continue declining to 4.6% by 2026. However, high debt service costs remain a considerable challenge, especially in countries with significant foreign debt, such as Zambia and Ghana.
The report highlights growth disparities across the region. Among the 27 Sub-Saharan nations with growth acceleration, Niger and Angola stand out. Niger’s economy is projected to grow by 3.6%, bolstered by stable agricultural output and an improved oil sector. Angola is similarly expecting growth of 2.2%, driven by a rebound in oil production after major maintenance shutdowns. However, both economies rely heavily on resource-based industries, leaving them vulnerable to global market fluctuations.
In contrast, larger economies such as Nigeria and South Africa face slower growth recoveries. Nigeria’s projected 2024 growth rate of 3.3% is hampered by inflationary pressures, reaching a peak of 34.2% in mid-2024, according to the report. South Africa’s outlook is similarly sluggish, with projected growth at 1.1% in 2024, despite planned improvements in electricity provision and transportation reforms.
Pathways to Sustainable Growth and Stability
The World Bank emphasises the importance of fostering resilience through targeted policies and sustainable investments. To address both short-term economic recovery and long-term growth, African governments may need to prioritise investments in sectors promoting productivity and self-sufficiency. Agriculture, digital technology, and infrastructure are sectors with significant potential to drive employment, improve income distribution, and build resilience. Expanding access to social safety nets and improving governance could also help reduce the inequality fuelling unrest.
The report highlights agriculture as a resilient sector supporting growth in Kenya, Côte d’Ivoire, and Uganda. Strategic agricultural investments and favourable weather patterns have revitalised the sector in Kenya, where macroeconomic stability has also boosted private consumption. In Uganda, economic growth—projected at 6% in 2024—is supported by agriculture and infrastructure projects, along with improving regional trade dynamics.
In Côte d’Ivoire, infrastructure investments in digital and transport sectors are enhancing productivity, increasing investor confidence, and creating new economic opportunities, helping diversify growth.
Conclusion: Need for Structural Reform and Inclusive Growth
Looking ahead, the World Bank calls for policies that address both economic recovery and social stability. Improved institutional transparency and accountability would help reduce corruption, rebuild trust in government, and address the root causes of public discontent.
Structural reforms that support the growth of small and medium enterprises, as well as investment in infrastructure and digital connectivity, are vital for sustainable growth. The World Bank notes that, with these reforms, Sub-Saharan Africa could transition towards an inclusive economic framework, helping to ease social tensions and lay the foundation for long-term stability.
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