By Denis Muteguya

Kampala: General Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s social media pronouncement not to run in the 2026 presidential election, while urging support for his father, H. E President Yoweri Kaguta Museveni Tibuhaburwa, is a complex political message, loaded with deeper philosophical and strategic implications.

At first glance, many praise the decision as a demonstration of loyalty to his father and political maturity, but beneath the surface lies a web of political calculation, revealing the often-opaque machinery of power in Uganda.

In political science, power is often analyzed in terms of control and unpredictability. The philosopher Niccolò Machiavelli, in The Prince, argued that a ruler’s strength is derived from both fear and respect, but also from their ability to remain unpredictable.

Museveni, in his long reign, has become the epitome of Machiavelli’s ideal ruler: a man who carefully crafts his moves to keep both allies and adversaries uncertain. His unpredictability ensures that his position is never fully threatened, as no one can anticipate his next move. In this sense, Museveni’s leadership has always been a delicate balance of calculated foresight and controlled disorder. The role of General Muhoozi in this delicate dance cannot be overlooked.

By publicly stepping aside and deferring to his father, Muhoozi is both reaffirming the established order and, paradoxically, reinforcing his own influence within it. The act of “not running” in 2026 should not be interpreted as political surrender, but rather as a strategic maneuver designed to fortify his long-term ambitions.

In philosophical terms, Muhoozi’s gesture can be understood through the lens of Hegelian dialectics: his apparent retreat is but the negation of a thesis, designed to create a synthesis that solidifies both his loyalty and future potential. By deferring to his father, he aligns himself with the ultimate source of power, while simultaneously preserving his own image as a future leader, untainted by premature ambition.

His earlier flirtation with a 2026 candidacy could be seen as a deliberate ploy to expose hidden agendas within the political elite—especially those factions whose loyalties may have shifted away from Museveni.

By stirring the waters, Muhoozi likely aimed to reveal these disloyal elements, drawing them out of their concealment. The president’s own warnings about “self-seekers” around Muhoozi suggest that both father and son were well aware of these dynamics. Thus, Muhoozi’s announcement is not a retreat from ambition, but rather a tactical repositioning.

The role of SPA/PA Hajjat Hadijah Namyalo Uzeiye, as head of the Office of the National Chairman (ONC), and her championing of the “Jajja Tova ku Main” slogan adds another layer to this political drama. The slogan itself is a masterstroke of populist messaging, reinforcing President Museveni’s image as the steady hand guiding the nation.

Namyalo, by championing this brand, has effectively pre-empted any internal challenge to Museveni’s authority from within the ruling structures, including those who may have rallied behind Muhoozi prematurely. In philosophical terms, it’s a demonstration of the Platonic ideal of justice: every part of the political system fulfilling its proper role. Museveni as the philosopher-king, Muhoozi as the loyal heir, and Namyalo as the guardian of the political narrative.

Museveni’s strategy of appointing some of Muhoozi’s key supporters into ministerial positions, while leaving others in the wilderness of the Patriotic League of Uganda (PLU), further underscores the president’s mastery of political manipulation. The PLU, which could have been a vehicle for internal dissent, has instead been neutralized by turning it into a civic organization, stripping it of its potential as a threat.

This Machiavellian move ensures that those who might have hoped to leverage Muhoozi’s ambitions for their own gain have been sidelined, leaving only those loyal to both Museveni and his son.

In the end, Museveni’s enduring grip on power is not simply a matter of longevity but of philosophical insight into the nature of political power itself. He understands, as few others do, that power is not a fixed quantity, but a dynamic, constantly shifting force. By allowing his son to draw out hidden threats and then stepping in to neutralize them, Museveni has once again demonstrated his unparalleled ability to adapt to changing circumstances.

As Uganda heads toward the 2026 elections, Museveni’s path to victory appears, on the surface, clear and unchallenged. Yet, as always with Museveni, there is more happening beneath the surface than meets the eye. While social media noise and street-level opposition may capture the headlines, the real story lies in the careful orchestration of power behind the scenes. Uganda’s future leadership will, as always, emerge from the constitutional structures Museveni has so carefully cultivated, not from the ephemeral world of online declarations or populist movements.

In conclusion, Muhoozi’s decision not to run in 2026 is not the end of his political journey but the beginning of a new phase. By choosing loyalty to his father, he has secured his place in the long game of Ugandan politics. Museveni, meanwhile, continues to demonstrate the unpredictable and calculative leadership that has defined his tenure. The political landscape remains firmly in his grasp, and while the next head of state will emerge in time, it will be on Museveni’s terms, and no one else’s.

The writer is Denis Muteguya, a concerned citizen and can be reached on denismuteguya@gmail.com