The recently released Consumer Prices Index by the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (Ubos) reveals a notable uptick in the country’s annual inflation rate.

From a modest 2.8 per cent recorded in the preceding year ending January, the rate surged to 3.4 per cent by February. This increase is mirrored in the monthly inflation figures, which escalated by 0.5 per cent from the previous flat rate recorded in January.

The primary factor attributed to this shift in prices is the reopening of schools, exerting upward pressure on overall inflation, which surged to 11.4 per cent in February, contrasting sharply with the zero per cent recorded just a month prior.

Underlying the annual inflationary trend is the annual core inflation rate, which experienced a notable uptick of 3.4 per cent in the year culminating in February 2024, compared to the 2.4 per cent registered in the previous year ending January 2024.

Aliziki Kaudha Lubega, the director of economic statistics at Ubos, highlighted that the annual core inflation surge was predominantly propelled by service inflation. Ser- vice inflation witnessed a marked increase, soaring to 5.4 per cent in the year ending February 2024, in contrast to the 3.9 per cent recorded in the year ending January 2024.

“The surge in annual services inflation can be attributed to the rise in annual education services inflation, which escalated to 14.5 per cent in the year concluding February 2024, compared to the 6.1 per cent registered in January 2024,” she explained.

In urban areas such as Kampala, Wakiso, and Mukono, school fees typically range from Shs 1.4 million to Shs 3.3 million, whereas in districts like Jinja and Mityana, fees tend to be slightly lower, varying from Shs 500,000 to Shs 1 million.

Furthermore, she noted that several schools have recently revised their fees upwards, impacting various associated services such as transportation fares and food costs. The annual energy fuel and utilities (EFU) inflation has risen to 8.0 per cent in the year ending February 2024, up from 7.4 per cent in the previous year ending January 2024.

This increase can be attributed to the uptick in prices of firewood, gasoline and liquefied gas. Specifically, the price of petrol has seen a slight rise from Shs 5,470 to Shs 5,538, while diesel prices have experienced a marginal decrease from Shs 4,996 to Shs 4,980.

Similarly, transport service inflation has seen a shift to 2.6 per cent in February, down from 4.5 per cent in January. The increase primarily affects short-distance travel, typically less than 50 kilometres, and is driven by heightened demand.

She noted that the prices of natural flowers have risen compared to the staple prices recorded last month. As February is widely recognized as the Valentine’s season, she believes this surge in prices is attributed to increased demand for flowers.

The annual food crops and related Items Inflation saw a slower rate of increase at 0.5 per cent in the year ending February 2024, compared to the 2.6 per cent registered in the preceding year ending January 2024. This deceleration is primarily attributed to the rise in the price of cooking bananas and bogoya, while prices for beef and maize have similarly increased.