Rwandan President Paul Kagame’s announcement of his intention to run for a fourth term in the upcoming presidential election next year has raised concerns about the future of democracy in Rwanda. Despite this move not being unexpected, it has prompted discussions about the longevity of his rule and its implications.

Kagame, who won the previous election with a staggering 98.8% of the vote, securing seven more years in office, is eligible for an additional 10 years according to the country’s constitution. If re-elected in 2024, he would serve a total of 40 years as president.

In an interview with Jeune Afrique magazine, President Kagame expressed gratitude for the confidence shown by Rwandans and affirmed his candidacy. When asked about Western opinions on his decision, he responded, “I’m sorry for the West, but what the West thinks is not my problem,” asserting that people should be allowed to organize themselves as they wish.

However, concerns have been raised about Kagame’s extended stay in power, with some drawing parallels to other African leaders who have held on to power for extended periods. Phil Clark, a professor of international politics at SOAS University of London, noted that Kagame might want to avoid being seen as President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, who has held the presidency into his 80s.

Kagame has been in power since 2000 and is currently Rwanda’s longest-serving president after his predecessor, Juvenal Habyarimana, who ruled for 21 years until his assassination in 1994. While Kagame is credited with overseeing Rwanda’s remarkable economic and social transformation since the 1994 genocide, criticism has arisen concerning his authoritarian rule and suppression of dissent.

If President Kagame secures re-election in August 2024, he would become East Africa’s second longest-serving leader after Yoweri Museveni of Uganda, who has been in power since 1986. Kagame would be eligible to rule until 2034, completing two additional five-year terms.

Rwanda’s constitution allows the president to serve a maximum of two terms of five years each. However, Article 172 of the revised constitution allows the current president to serve a seven-year term, effectively extending Kagame’s potential time in office.

While Kagame remains popular among many Rwandans for his role in the country’s recovery following the 1994 genocide, questions have arisen within the ruling Rwanda Patriotic Front (RPF) about the need for fresh leadership and whether younger party members should be given greater prominence.

Green Party leader Frank Habineza is among the few who have declared their intention to run against Kagame in the 2024 election. While he initially opposed the 2015 constitutional amendment that allowed Kagame to seek a third term, he now acknowledges Kagame’s constitutional right to run for two more terms.

President Kagame’s critic, Victoire Ingabire, desires to be on the 2024 presidential ballot but is barred by laws preventing former convicts from holding public office. She served a prison sentence for inciting divisionism and conspiring against the government, receiving a presidential pardon in 2018. She has requested the president to remove the restrictions placed on her.

As President Kagame seeks a fourth term, Rwanda finds itself at a critical juncture, grappling with questions about the sustainability of his rule, the evolution of democracy, and the need for fresh leadership in a rapidly changing political landscape.